The world we live in is going
through more than one crisis
simultaneously.
Mass starvation >
In light of the real threat of a nuclear catastrophe the key players as represented by the US, the
European Union, Russia, India, China and Israel should stop treating each other with distrust. To
improve the national image, the new US Administration is trying, among other things, to stop
confrontation with the Islamic world and enter a constructive dialogue with Iran. Some experts
suggest that Iran should retain the right to continued uranium enrichment at the attained level.
This may have the opposite result, especially if unaccompanied by tougher demands on other
nuclear issues and readiness to apply the most rigorous sanctions. Tehran sees that as a
manifestation of weakness and intends to push ahead with its nuclear programme.
To avoid the catastrophe, the USA and Russia should necessarily reach an acceptable
compromise on issues that have so far remained a source of considerable differences. Solidarity
of the great powers – the permanent members of the UN Security Council – on the Iranian
problem and their determination to adopt sanctions in case of need in accordance with Articles
41 and 42 of the UN Charter are the lever that may force Tehran to revise its nuclear policy. In
this way alone can a new war be prevented inside and outside the region. Only in this case can
Iran enter a serious dialogue with the six world powers a45nd the IAEA on nuclear problems
instead of its current sham talks serving as a smokescreen for boosting its nuclear missile
potential.
The demographic crisis >
The demographic crisis >
International terrorism >
The environmental crisis >
Europe is presently preoccupied with resolving the economic crisis and integrating new EU
member states. The Europeans are little worried by what is going on outside their continent and
erroneously believe it to be none of their business. Defence awareness in Europe is next to zero.
Concern over energy security and unwillingness to depend on Russia forces EU states to flirt
with the conservative Islamic regimes and to appease Iran. Such a policy will triple the
vulnerability of the European Union due to OPEC energy blackmail, terrorism and social
upheavals in the Islamic diaspora and the threat of a nuclear missile strike from Iran.
Instead of flirting shortsightedly with Iran, the European Union should take a stand of principle
on the Iranian nuclear problem and in parallel initiate a breakthrough in cooperation with Russia
on problems of the economy, power engineering, migration and security, including cooperation
with the former Soviet republics. It is in European interests to give (together with the US and
Russia) unambiguous security guarantees to Israel. This would effectively boost EU political
influence on a global scale.
Russia’s decisive role in preventing nuclear catastrophe and ensuring global and regional
security depends on its definitive political choices and adoption of European values like
democracy. Russia is the largest European country and an inalienable part of European
civilization. Its long-term economic, political, military and cultural interests, security and broad
modernization objectives are inseparably tied to close cooperation with Western countries, given
equal rights and respect for Russian historical characteristics.
Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, to say nothing of Islamic terrorists gaining access to
them, will primarily jeopardize Russia in light of its geographical proximity, transparent southern
borders, Islamic radicalism at home and the inflow of immigrants from without. For the same
reasons, a new war in the Persian Gulf, which is highly probable if Iran continues to pursue its
aggressive policy, will be hugely detrimental primarily to Russia. Nevertheless, such
vulnerability dictates a resolute and clear-cut stand worthy of a great power rather than a timid
and ambiguous attitude. All the more so since it would be madness for Russia to repeat the
mistakes the Soviet Union made when it armed Islamic radicals against Israel and the West, and
then found itself at war with them in Afghanistan (just as Russia has in the Northern Caucasus
and Central Asia).
Moscow’s current policy of balancing between the US and Iran, between mock negotiations and
marginal sanctions, is becoming increasingly counter-productive. Provided the West respects its
regional and global interests, Russia should side with the US on the Iranian problem. Together
they should see to it that Tehran complies with UN Security Council resolutions, including by
showing determination to apply Articles 41 and 42 of the UN Charter in case of need.
Thus, preventing both the most dangerous nuclear crisis and a new regional war depends, for
the foreseeable future, on Russia more than on anyone else.
China has of late and India for quite a while been familiar with the growing threat of Islamic
extremism. Iran with a nuclear bomb, together with a lack of decisive opposition on the part of
the USA and EU to the pro-Western leaders of Pakistan, who do not want to hurt their own
extremists, will make this threat even greater. An appeasement policy towards Iran, taking into
account its nuclear ambitions, can be justified neither by energy interests nor by the geopolitical
competition of the two (prospectively three) new superpowers of the twenty-first century. The
economic, scientific, technical and political interaction of China and India with the West and
Russia would mean much more to their long-term interests than temporary gains from flirting
with Pakistan and Iran.
Israel has traditionally been guided by its relations primarily with the US Administration. The
White House and Congress are the focus of its attention and the US is asked from time to time
to use its veto powers in the UN Security Council. Such a one-sided slant towards the US no
longer meets the demands of the times. It should be accepted as a positive fact that the current
Israeli government is aware of that and is trying to adjust its foreign policy accordingly.
In its foreign policy Israel should also strengthen its ties with other states and organizations –
the EU and its central players, along with Russia, China and India – promoting cooperation in
various humanitarian fields and emphasizing broad common values and interests. Under the
influence of mass propaganda many people in the democratic countries of Europe and Asia do
not understand that Israel is the only democratic state in the Middle East and the sole
representative of modern societies and their values in this region. Israel has the monumental
task to restore the lost trust, sympathy and support in the West, and primarily Europe, and to
win these in the rest of the world.
Enough of Israel holding its “deaf-and-dumb” defensive position on the nuclear problem and
allowing its opponents into this field for attacks and mounted political pressure on Tel Aviv, as
has been corroborated by the NPT Conference of 2010. It is time for this taboo to be lifted from
Israeli foreign policy and for an energetic regional security action programme to be launched.
Peace with the Palestinians is the key prerequisite for a transition to an assertive security policy.
Israel should also continue its efforts to establish diplomatic and economic contacts with
moderate Islamic states.
